Геосферные исследования. 2019; : 35-45
Прогноз максимального стока реки Мармарик и оценка его реакции на глобальное изменение климата (Армения)
https://doi.org/10.17223/25421379/13/4Аннотация
В работе рассматриваются особенности формирования максимальных расходов р. Мармарик, оценены закономерности многолетних колебаний максимальных расходов в разных речных створах в контексте глобального изменения климата, сделан сравнительный анализ, дан прогноз максимального расхода для замыкающего речного створа. В качестве исходного материала использованы фактические данные наблюдений Армгидромета. Проанализированы и использованы литературные источники, применены математико-статистический, географический, а также методы сравнения и анализа.
Список литературы
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Geosphere Research. 2019; : 35-45
Forecast of the maximum flow Marmarik River and reactions of the global climate change (Armenia)
https://doi.org/10.17223/25421379/13/4Abstract
The paper discusses and analyzes the peculiarities of formation of maximum flow rates of the Marmarik River, analyzes and evaluates the patterns of multi-year fluctuations of maximum flow rates in different river sites in the context of global climate change, made a comparative analysis, gave a forecast of the maximum flow rate for the lower river course. Actual observational data of Armhydromet for maximum flow rate, air temperature and precipitation were used as the source material.
The available literature sources were processed and analyzed, the mathematical-statistical, geographical, and also methods of comparison and analysis were applied. To determine the maximum flow rates of the Marmarik River, the Ankavan post and the Gomur River, the Meghradzor post, the winter period precipitation, the sum of positive temperatures, liquid precipitation, the volume of the runoff of the flood period were used, but no reliable dependencies were obtained. Dependencies obtained can be used for consultations.
To determine the maximum flow at the Aghavnadzor post of the Marmarik River, a multifactorial correlation close relationship was obtained, which can be used to compile operational forecasts of the maximum flow in this river site.
The absolute values of the maximum river flow of the Marmarik River at Aghavnadzor are estimated for different scenarios of climate change. For different scenarios and cases in the Marmarik River basin, a different degree of changes in the maximum flow might be expected. Moreover, the largest decrease in the maximum runoff of the Marmarik River basin is expected under the conditions of an increase in the average air temperature of the spring season by 2.7–3.9 and a decrease in the amount of spring atmospheric precipitation by 2.4–2.6%.
As a result of the study, it turned out that in the study area there is only a tendency to decrease the values of maximum water discharge which is the result of both human activities and climate change.
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